Articles Database

Quantitative Analysis Department
Gabriele Susinno & Marco Rigo

(March 17th, 1999)


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Interest Rate Related Material




Fixed Income Securities and the Term Structure Of Interest Rates: PartI Part II and PartIII,Avellaneda, 1998 ,Lectures
Debt Instruments and Markets, D.Backus ,1998 ,MBA Lectures
Phenomenologyof the Interest Rates Curve ,Bouchaud et al. ,1997, Risk
Modeling TermStructure Dynamics ,R.Cont, 1998,INRIA proceedings
The Dynamicsof Forward Interest Rate Curve with Stochastic Strings Shocks (Figs) ,Santa-Clara & Sornette,1998,cond-mat/9801321
"String" Formulation of the Dynamics of Forward Interest Rate Curve ,Sornette, 1998, cond-mat/9802136
Arrow-Debreu Prices Implicitinthe Term Structure of Interest Rate ,Jalali & Kazemi ,1997 n.a.
Movements in the Term Structure of Interest Rate ,Bliss ,4Q 1997, Federal Reserve of Atlanta
Testing Term Structure Estimation Methods, R. Bliss, 1996, Advances in Futures and Options Research
The Stability of Interest Rate Processes, R. Bliss, 1997, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
The Elasticity of Interest Rate Volatility: Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders Revisited, 1998, R. Bliss,  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Callable U.S. Treasury Bonds: Optimal Calls, Anomalies, and Implied Volatilities, 1997, R. Bliss, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Est. of Risk-NeutralFactor Dynamics of Affine Term Structure Models ,Bams & Schotman, 1998, Working Paper
Arbitrage Opportunities in ArbitrageFree Models of Bond Pricing ,Backus & Foresi, 1996, Nat. Bureau of Economic Research
Interest RateDynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curve, Bjork, 1997, Working paper
Collapse of Detail, Pan, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
A New Model for Interest Rates, Epstein, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Dynamic of Spot, Forward and Futures Libor Rates, Rutkowsky, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Discrete Time Models of Bond Pricing, Backus, 1998, Working Paper
Minimal Realisation of Interes Rate Models, Bjork, 1997, Working paper
Term Structure of Interest Rate: A System Theoretic Approach, Bjork, 1998, Working paper
Treasury yields and Corporate Bond YIeld Spreads: An Empirical Analysis, Duffee, 1995, Working paper
Debt Maturity and the Use of Interest Rate Derivatives by non Financial Firms, Fenn, 1996, Federal Reserve Board
LIBOR rate models, related derivatives and model Calibration, Schoenmakers, 1999, Working paper
Spline Methods for Extracting Interest Rate Curves from Coupon Bond Prices, Waggoner, 1997, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Martingales Restrictions on Arrow-Debreu Securities Under Rational Expectations and Consistent Beliefs, Bossaerts, 1996, CalTch
Transform Analysis and Option Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions, Duffie, 1998, Stanford University
Do Interest Rates Really Follow Continuous-Time MArkov Diffusions?, Ait-Sahalia, 1997, Worrking paper
Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds, Duffie, 1998, NBER
Predictable Changes in Yields and Forward Rates, Backus, 1997, Working paper
Macroeconomic Foundations of Higher Moments in Bond Yields, Backus, 1997, Working paper
Models of Bond Pricing, Backus, 1996, SSB Working Draft
The Surprise Element: Jumps in Interest Rate Diffusions, Das, Harvard University
Yield Curve Models: A Mathematical Review, Back,1997,in "Option Embedded Bonds: Price Analysis, Credit Risk and Investment Strategies",Irwin
Markov-Functional Interest Rate Models, Hunt, 1997, ABN-Amro
A Spectral Algorithm for Pricing Interest Rate Options, Eydeland, 1996, Kluwer Academic Publishers
Nonparametric Modelling of U.S. Interest Rate term Structure Dynamics and Implications on the Prices of Derivative Securities, Jiang, 1998, Working paper
A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk, Stanton, 1997, Journal of Finance
Continuous Time Term Structure Models, Musiela, 1996, Working paper
Binomial Term Structure Models, Benninga, 1997, Lecture notes
Exploratory Data Analysis of Short-Term Interest Rates, Jaschke, 1994, Working paper
Mispricing of Discount Bond Options in the Black-Derman-Toy Model Calibrated to Term Structure and Cap Volatilities: An Empirical Study, Radharishnan, 1998
The Potential Approach to the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Rates, Rogers, 1995, Working paper
Which Model for the Term-Structure of Interest Rates Should One Use?, Rogers, 1995, Working paper
Positive Interest Rates and Non-Linear Term-Structure Models, Avellaneda,1998, Working paper
Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims in MArkets with Uncertain Volatilities, Lewicki, 1996, Working paper
Simulating American Bond Options in an HJM Framework, Carr, 1998, Working paper
Simulating Bermudan Interest Rate Derivatives, Carr, 1997, Working paper
Kalman Filtering of Generalised Vasicek Term Structure Models, Babbs, 1998, Working paper
A Numerical Study of One-Factor Interest Rate Models, Zhong Ge, 1998
The Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve: A Formulation with State Variables, de Jong, 1998, Working paper
Optimal Bond Refunding: Evidence From the Municipal Bond Market, Samaresh Priyadarshi, 1997, Department of Finance Virginia Tech
Minimal Realisations of Forward Rates, T. Bjork, 1997, Working paper
The Potential Approach to Bond and Currency Pricing, Markus Leippold, 1999, Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, University of St. Gallen.
Mispricing of Discount Bond Options in the Black-Derman-Toy Model Calibrated to Term Structure and Cap Volatilities: An Empirical Study, A. Radhakrishnan, 1998
Spline Methods for Extracting Interest Rate Curves from Coupon Bond Prices, Daniel F. Waggoner, 1997, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Real-Time Trading Models and the Statistical Properties of Foreign Exchange Rates, G. Ballocchi, 1999, Olsen & Associates
Pricing the strategic value of Poison Put Bonds, A. David, 1997, Federal Reserve, board of Governors
The Entropy Theory of Bond Option Pricing, Gulko, 1998
Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?, Chapman, 1999
A Critique of the Stochastic Discount Factor Methodology, R. Kan, 1999

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Model Implementation


Black-Derman-Toy: a simple implementation in C, E. Bouye, 1998 financial Econometrics Research Center City University Business School
Heat-Jarrow-Morton: a simple implementation in C, E. Bouye, 1998 financial Econometrics Research Center City University Business School

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Credit Derivatives and Related Stuff

A Jump-Diffusion Approach to Modeling Credit Risk and Valuing Defaultable Securities, Zhou, 1997, Federal Reserve Board
Credit Derivatives in Banking: Useful Tools for Loan Risk Management?, Duffee, 1997, Federal Reserve Board
Simulating Correlated Defaults, Duffie, 1998, Stanford University
A Direct Approach to Arbitrage-Free Pricing of Credit Derivatives, Das, 1998, NBER
Pricing Credit Derivatives, Skora, 1998, Credit Derivatives - RISK
The Credit Default Swap, Skora, 1998, Credit Derivatives - RISK
Rational Modeling of Credit Risk and Credit Derivatives, Skora, 1998, Credit Derivatives - RISK
Default Correlation: An Analytical Result, Zhou, 1997, Federal Reserve Board
Pricing Credit Risk Derivatives, Schonbucher, 1997, Working paper
The Valuation of Default Risk in Corporate Bonds and Interest Rate Swaps, Nielsen, 1997,Wharton University.
Estimating the price of default risk, Duffee, 1996.
Credit Derivatives in Banking: Useful Tools for Loan Risk Manaement, Duffee, 1997
Credit Swap Valuation, Duffee, 1998
First-to-default Valuation, Duffee, 1998
Defaultable Term Structure Models with Fractionnal Recovery of Par, Duffee, 1998
Swap Rates and Credit Quality, Duffee & Huang,1997
Floating-Fixed Credit Spreads, Duffie & Liu, 1998
Simulating Correlated Default, Duffie & Singleton, 1998
Modelling Term Structure of Defaultable Bonds, Duffie & Singleton, 1999
A Comparative Anatomy for Credit Risk Models, Gordy, 1998
Swap Pricing With Two-Sided Credit Risk in a Rating Based Model, Huge & Lando, 1998
CREDIT RISK AND REGULATORY CAPITAL, ISDA Note, 1998
Total Return Swaps, Jessica James, 1998, NetExposure
Some Elements in Rating Based Credit Risk Modeling, lando, 1999
Pricing the Risks of Default, Dilip B. Madan & Haluk Unal, 1994
Measuring the Cost of Credit Risk, Humphreys, 1998
On Cox Process and Credit Risk Securities, Lando, 1998
Bond Pricing with Default Risk, Saa-Requejo & Santa-Clara, 1999
The Term Structure of Bond Prices, Schonbucher, 1996
Pricing Credit Derivatives, Schonbucher, 1996
Rational Modlling of Credit Risk and Credit Derivatives, Richard K. Skora, 1998
The Credit Default Swap, Richard K. Skora, 1998
Pricing Credit Derivatives, Richard K. Skora, 1998
Vulnerable Options,Risky Corporate Bond and Credit Spread, Cao & Wei, 1999
A Jump-Diffusion Approach to Modeling Credit Risk and Valuing Defaultable Securities, Zhou, 1997
Default Correlation, An Analitic Result, Zhou, 1997

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Bayesian Approach

Jaynes Book
Probability and Measurement Incertainty in Physics, D'Agostini, 1995, DESY
How to Implement a Priori Information a Statistichal Mechanics Approach, Lemm, 1998, cond-mat/9808039
Errori e incertezze di misura, D'agostini, 1999, Roma Univ. La Sapienza
Robust Bayesian estimation of Autoregressive-moving Average Models, Barnett, 1996, n.a.
Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and Parameter Estimation, Bretthost, 1997, Lectures Notes in Statistics no 48
Model Error in Contingent Claims Dynamic Evolution, Jacquier, 1996, CIRANO
Models and Priors for Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, Jacquier, 1995, CIRANO
MCMC Analysis of Diffusion Models with Applications to Finance, Eraker, 1997, Working Paper
Bayesian Analysis of the Unobserved ARCH Model, Giakoumatos,1998, Bayesian Statistics, Oxford University Press
Adaptive Bayesian Wavelet Shrinkage, Chipman, 1998,  J. of the Am. Stat. Ass.
Small-Signal Analysis in High-Energy Physics: A Bayesian Approach, Prosper, 1988, Physical Review D
An Experiment to Evaluate Bayesian Learning of Nash  Equilibrium Play, Cox, 1997, University of California Discussion paper 97-36
Bayesian Reasoning in High Energy Physics - Principles and Applications-, D'Agostini, 1998, Roma Univ. La Sapienza
A Simple Bayesian Method for the Analysis of Diffusion Processes, Jones, 1998, JEL C11
The VAR-VARCH model: A Bayesian Approach, Polasek, 1998, Working paper
Non Parametric Bayesian Approach to Modelling Nonliear Time Series, Denison, 1998, Imperial College
Bayesian Nonpaprametric Inference for Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes, Kuo, 1997, Working paper
Exchange Rate Target Zone Model: A Bayesian Evaluation, Li, 1998, Working paper
Bayesian Methods for Intelligent Data Analysis, M. Ramoni, 1998, KMI Publications

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Unfolding and Empirical Analysis & Stochastic Volatility

SVD Approach to Data Unfolding, Hocker,1995, MC-TH-9515
Generalised Spectral Estimation, Berkowitz, 1996,  Working paper Federal Reserve Board
Detection of Abrupt Changes Theory and Applications, Basseville, 1998, IRISA/CNRS
Time Series for Macroeconomics and Finance, Cochran, 1997, Lecture notes
The Stochastically Subordinated Log Normal Process Applied to Financial Time Series and Option Pricing, Edelman, 1997, Working paper
State Prices Implicit in Valuation Formulae for Derivative Securities, Rady, 1995, Working paper
Estimation in Financial Models, Going, 1996, RISKLAB-ETHZ
Recovering Probabilities and Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realised Returns, Rubinstein, 1999, CalTech
Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realised Returns, Jackwerth, 1998, Working paper
Recovering Stochastic Processes from Option Prices, Jackwerth, 1996, Working paper
Do Option MArkets Correctly Price the Probabilities of Movements of the Underlying Asset?, Ait-Sahalia, 1998, Working paper
Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Regression Using Kernel Methods, Ait-Sahalia, 1998, MIT
Recovering Probability Distributions from Contemporaneous Security Prices, Jackwerth, 1995, Working paper
Rational Expectations Equilibrium when Priors are Inconsistent, Bossaerts, 1998, CalTech
Nonparametric Estimation of State-Prices Densities Implicit In Financial Asset Prices + data, Ait-Sahalia, 1995,Working paper
Variable Kernel Estimates in the Impossibility of Tunning the Parameters, Devroye, 1996,Working paper
Volatility distribution in the S&P500 Stock Index, Cizeau, 1997, cond-mat/9708143
Using Wavelets to Obtain a Consistent Ordinary Least Squares Estimator of the Long Memory Parameter, Jensen, 1997, Working paper
Inverse Problems and Model Selection for Pricing and Decision Making in Finance, Sampieri, 1999, JEL G11-G12-G13
Multifractality of Deutschemark/US Dollar Exchange Rates, Fisher, 1996, Working paper
Local polynomial estimators of the voatility function in nonparametric autoregression, Hardle, 1996, Working paper
On the Detection and Estimation of Long Memory in Stochastic Volatility, Breidt, 1998, Working paper
On Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Bollerslev, 1994, CIRANO
Stochastic Volatility, Hobson, 1996, Working paper
Complete Models with Stochastic Volatility, Hobson, 1998, Working paper
Correlation of High Frequency Financial Time Series, Lundin,1998, Olsen & Associates
A Closer Look at the Eurofutures Market: Intraday Statistical Analysis, Piccinato, 1998, Olsen and Associates
An E-ARCH Model for the Term Structure of Implied Volatility of FX Options, Zhu, 1997,  Working paper
Minimum-Relative-Entropy Calibration of Asset Pricing Models, Avellaneda, 1998, Int. J. Theor. and Appl. Fin.
Regularized Unfolding for High-Energy Physics Experiments, Blobel, 1996, OPAL Technical Note TN361
Comparison of Approximate Methods for Handling Hyperparameters, Mackay

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Malliavin Calculus

WienerChaos and Hermite Polynomials Expansions for pricing and Edging ContingenClaims, Barucci et al., 1997, DIMADEFAS
Anticipationg Stochastic Differential Equations of Startonovich Type, Kohatsu-Higa, 1998, n.a.
Weak rate of Convergence for an Euler Scheme of non-linear SDE's, Kohatsu-Higa, 1991, n.a.
Stochastic Differential Equations with Random Coefficients, Kohatsu-Higa, 1991, n.a.
An Introduction to Malliavin Calculus with Financial Applications + Exercises, Oksendall, 1997, Lecture notes
An Application of Malliavin Calculus to Monote Carlo Methods in Finance, Fournie et al, 1997, CEREMADE
Applications of Malliavin Calculus to Monte-Carlo Methods in Finance II, Fournie et al, 1999, CEREMADE

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Option Pricing

American Derivatives - a Review, Aase, 1997, Working Paper
On The pricing of Options in Incomplete Markets, Melemberg, 1998, Working paper
Pricing Risky Options Simply, Aurell, 1998,  Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Taming Large Events: Optimal Prtfolio Theori for Strongly Fluctuating Assets, Bouchaud, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Deriving a Closed Form Solution for Gaussian Pricing Model a systematic Time Domain Approach, Levin, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Optimal Strategy for Prudent Investors, Baviera, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Optimal Investment Strategy for Risky Assets, Maslov, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
An Explicit Formula for Option Pricing in Discrete Incomplete Markets, Wolczynska, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Constrained Optimization with a continuous Hopfield-Lagrange Model, Van den Berg, 1993, Working paper
Local Parametric Analysis of Hedging in Discrete Time, Bosseart, 1995, INSEAD
Accounting Biases in Black-Scholes, Backus, 1997, Working paper
Option Pricing and Partial Edging, Aurell, 1996, Journal of Political Economy
Asset Pricing, Cochrane, 1998, Lectures
Pricing European Barrier Options, Buchen, 1996, Working paper
Efficient Monte Carlo Pricing of Basket Options, Pellizzari, 1998, Working paper (Universita di Venezia)
A Path Integral Approach to Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility: Some Exact Results, Baaquie, 1997, cond-mat/9708178
Robust Hedging via Coupling, Hobson, 1997, Working paper
Robust Hedging of the Lookback Option, Hobson, 1998, Working paper
Real World Options: Smile and Residual Risk, Bouchaud, 1995, cond-mat/9509095
On the Minimal MArtingale Measure and the Follmer-Schweizer Decomposition, Schweizer, 1994, Stochastic Analysis and Applications
An Asian Option Approach to the Valuation of Insurance Futures Contracts, Cummins, 1994, Wharton Financial Institutions Center
On Cox Process and Credit Risky Securities, Lando, 1994, Working paper
Numerical Option Models Without Programming, Randall, 1997, Working paper
Path-Dependent Option Valuation when the Underlying Path is Discontinuous, Zhou, 1997, Working paper
Pricing Derivatives the Martingale Way, Dufresne, 1996, Working paper
Explaining Option Prices: Deterministic vs Stochastic Models, Buraschi, 1997, LBS
Black, Merton, and Scholes: Their Central Contribution to Economics, Duffie, 1997, n.a.
Local Parametric Analysis of Derivatives Pricing and Hedging, Bossaerts, 1998, CalTech
Building a Consistent Pricing Model from Observed Option Prices, Laurent, 1998, JEL C51-G13-G14
Risk-Return arguments Applied to Options with Trading Costs, 1998, cond-mat/9803238
Small Transaction Costs Asymptotics for the Black and Scholes Model, Albanese, 1993, Working paper
Option Pricing Models for Incomplete Market, Fedotov, 1998, cond-mat/9807397
Option Pricing Without Completeness and Non-Arbitrage, Shepp, 1998, Lecture Notes
Risk-Return arguments applied to Options With Trading Costs, Aurell, 1998, Working paper
The Feynman-Kac Formula and Decomposition of Brownian paths, Jeanblanc, 1996, Technical Report 471
Some Generalisations of Bessel Processes, Going, 1997, Risklab Report ETHZ
Optimal Asset Rebalancing in the Presence of Transaction Costs, Leland, 1996, BARRA
Faster Valuation of Financial Derivatives, Paskov, 1996, Working paper
New Methodologies for Valuing Derivatives, Paskov, 1996, Working paper
New Results on Deterministic Pricing of Financial Derivatives, Papageorgiou, 1996, CUCS-028-96
Collectively Fluctuating Assets in Persence of Arbitrage Opportunities and Option Pricing, Adamchuk,1997, Physics of our days
Fast Accurate and Inelegant Valuation of American Options, Joubert, 1995
On Leland's Startegy of Option Pricing with Transaction Costs, Kabanov, 1988
The Value of an Asian Option, Rogers, 1995, Working paper
Fast Accurate Binomial Pricing, Rogers, 1997, Working paper
Valuing Moving Barrier Options, Rogers, 1997, Working paper
Revisiting Black-Scholes Equation, Wang, 1998, cond-mat/9805115
Combinatorial Implications of Nonlinear Uncertain Volatility Models: the Case of Barrier Options, Avellaneda, 1997, Working paper
Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities in MArkets With Uncertain Volatilities, Avellaneda,1998, Working paper
Calibrating Volatility Surfaces via Relative-Entropy Minimization, Avellaneda,1998, Working paper
An Introduction to Option Pricing and the Mathematica Theory of Risk, Avellaneda,1998, Working paper
Managing the Volatility Risk of Portfolios of Derivative Securities: The Lagrangian Uncertain Volatility Model, Avellaneda,1998, Working paper
Minimum Entropy Calibration of Asset Pricing Models, Avellaneda,1998, Working paper
Dynamic Hedging Portfolios for Derivative Securities in the Presence of Large Transaction Costs, Avellaneda,1998, Working paper
Dynamic Hedging with Transaction Costs: From Lattice to Nonlinear Volatility and Free-Boudary Problems, Paras, 1998, Working paper
American Put Call Parity, Carr, 1996, Working paper
Breaking Barriers, Carr, 1996, Working paper
Currency Covariance Contracting, Carr, 1999, Working paper
Deriving Derivatives of Derivatives Securities, Carr, 1993, Working paper
Randomization and the American Put, Carr,1997, Morgan Stanley
Hedging Complex Barrier Options, Carr, 1997, Working papers
Optimal Positioning in Derivatives Securities, Carr, 1998, Working paper
Towards a Theory of Volatility Trading, Carr, 1997 Working paper
Option Valuation Using Fast Fourier Transforms, Carr, 1998, Working paper
The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing, Carr, 1998, Working paper
Static Option Replication, E. Derman, 1995, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
Enhanced Numerical Methods for Options with Barriers, E. Derman, 1995, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
Trading and Hedging Local Volatility, Kani, 1997, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
Introduction to Option Pricing in a Securities Market I: Binary Models, K. Dzhaparidze, 1996, CWI Volume 9 (4).
A Closed-Form GARCH Option Pricing Model, Steven L. Heston, 1997, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Preference-Free Option Pricing with Path-Dependent Volatility: A Closed-Form Approach, Steven L. Heston, 1998, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Partial Hedging for Options Based on Extreme Values and Passage Times, M. Breton, 1999, HEC Montreal
Option Pricing, Arbitrage and Martingales, T. Vorst and A. Pelsser, Working paper
Pricing Lookback and Barrier Optio Under the CEV Process, Boyle, 1999

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Implied/Implicit Trees and Distributions, Smiles and Smirks

Stochastic Implied Trees: Arbitrage Pricing with Stochastic term and Strike Structure of Volatility, Derman, 1998,  Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Beyond Implied Volatilities, Cont, 1997, Proceedings
Exponential Functionnals of Brownian Motion and Disordered Systems, Comtet, 1996, cond-mat/9601014
Edgeworth Binomial Trees, Rubinstein, 1998, University of California at Berkeley
Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests, Dumas, 1997, Working paper
Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion, Ait-sahalia, 1997, n.a.
Determining Volatility Surfaces and Option Values from an Implied Volatility Smile, Carr, 1998, Working paper
The Volatility Smile and Its Implied Tree, E. Derman, 1994, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
Implied Trinomial Trees of the Volatility Smile, E. Derman, 1996, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
The Local Volatility Surface, E. Derman, 1996, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
Stochastic Implied Trees: Arbitrage Pricing With Stochastic Term and Strike Structure of Volatility, E. Derman, 1998, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility, Neuberger,  1999, LBS
Smiles and Smirks: A Term Structure Perspective, Das and Sundaram, 1999

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Numerical Methods & Stochastic Calculus

Introduction to Monte Carlo Methods, Computational Science Education Project, 1995
Introduction aux simulations numeriques, Caffarel, 1996, DEA Lecture Notes
Stochastic Calculus of Variation for Martingales, Privault, 1998, Working paper
An Extension of Stochastic Calculus to Certain non-Markovian Process, Privault, 1998, Working papers
Automatic Synthesis of Financial Modeling Codes, Randall, 1996, SciComp Inc.
SciNapse: A Problem Solving Environment for Partial Differential Equations, Akers, 1998, SciComp Inc.
The Markov Chain Approximation Approach for Numerical Solution of Stochastic Control Problems: Experiences from Merton's Problem, Munk, JEL C61-G11
Some Competitive Learning Methods, Fritzke, 1997, Working paper
Discrete Wavelet Transforms in S, Nason, 1994, J. Comp. Graph. Stat

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Risk, VaR and RiskMetrics

RiskMetrics (VAR), JPMorgan, 1996, J.P. Morgan
Armonic Analysis in Value at Risk Calculation, Albanesi, 1998, Working paper
Bayesian Value at Risk, Albanesi, 1997, Working paper
Qunatitative Measure of Diversification Risk, Albanes1, 1998, Working paper
Minimising Volatilitty Increases Large Risks, Sornette, !998, cond-mat/9811292
Elements for a Theory of Financial Risks, Bouchaud, 1998, con-mat/9806101
Using Value at Risk to Control Risk Taking: How Wrong Can You Be?, Ju, 1998, OFOR Paper No 98-08
Evaluating the Risk of Portfolios, Sheedy, 1998, Working paper
Modeling Market Risk in a Jump-Diffusion Setting a Generalised Hofmann-Platen-Schweizer-Model, Weisemberg, 1998, Working paper
Forecasting Market SHares Using VAR and BVAR Models: A Comparison of their Forecasting Performance, Ramos, 1996
Mathematics of Financial Risk MAnagement and Exercises, Avellaneda,1998, Lecture Notes
Static Hedging for Taming Risk, Carr, 1997, Morgan Stanley
Model Risk, E. Derman, 1996, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
Regimes of Volatility, E. Derman, 1999, Goldman Sachs Research Paper
Diversified Portfolios in continuous time, T. Bjork, 1996, Working paper
Correlation and Dependency in Risk Management: Properties and  Pitfalls, 1999, P. Embrechts, Working paper
Tempting Fallacies in The Use of Correlation, Daniel Straumann, 1998, RISKLAB ETH Zurich
An Investigation of the Risk and Return Relation at Long Horizons, Harrison, 1999
Prices as Aggregators of Private Information, J.-W. Cho, 1999, Working paper
A Unified VaR Approach, E. Barone, IMI, 1998
Non Parametric Risk Avversion and Implied Risk Management, Aitsahalia,  1998
The Sampling Error in Estimates of Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolio Weights, Britten-Jones, 1999
An Asymptotic Expansion for Value-at-Risk, Quintanilla, PhD Thesis
Market Risk and Model Risk For a Financial Institution Writing Options, Clifton Green and Stephen Figlewski, 1999
Non-Linear Value-at-Risk, Schaefer, 1997
COHERENT RISK MEASURES ON GENERAL PROBABILITY SPACES, Delbaen, 1999
Factors at Risk, Studer, ETH
Value at Risk and Maximum Loss Optimization, Studer, ETH
Quadratic Maximum Loss for Risk Measurement of Portfolio, Studer, ETH
IIF REport on Risk: Report of the Task Force on Risk Assessment (March 1999).
Horizon Problems and Extreme Events in Financial Risk Management, Christoffersen, 1998, Wharton
Risk vs.Profit-Potential; A Model for Corporate Strategy, Radner & Shepp, 1997
Characteristics, Coveriances, And Average Returns: 1929 to 1997, Davis, 1999
EVALUATING FORECASTS OF CORRELATION USING OPTION PRICING, Gibson, 1998
Regulatory Evaluation of Value-at-Risk Models, Jose A. Lopez, 1997
 
 

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Levy Flights, Scaling Laws, and Interacting Agents

A Model for Ordinary Levy Motion, Checkin, 1999, cond-mat/9901064
Modelling of Financial Data: Comparison of the Truncated Levy Flight and ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) Process, Mantegna, 1998,cond-mat/9804126
Stochastic Lotka-Volterra Systems of Competing Auto-Catalytic Agents,Solomon, 1998, Working Paper
Affine Models of Currency Pricing: Accounting for the Forward Premium Anomaly, Backus, 1998, Working paper
Scaling and Correlations in Financial data, Cont, 1997, cond-mat/9705075
Scaling in Stock Market Data: Stable Laws and Beyond, Cont, cond-mat/9705087
Scaling properties of Driven Interfaces in Disordered Media, Amaral, 1995, cond-mat/9506091
Hard behaviour and Aggregate Fluctuations in Financial Markets, Cont, 1997, cond-mat/9712318
Predicting the Occurrence of Rare Events, Dacorogna, 1998, Newton Intitute Proceeding
II Seminario di Ingegneria Finanziaria, Genova University, 1998, DIBE
Insurance Policy Value and Pareto Optimal Retention in the Hypothesis of Rare Loss Events, Ghisellini, 1998, Working paper
Determination of the Hurst Exponent by Use of Wavelet Transforms, Simonsen, 1997, cond-mat/9707153
On Intra-daily Performance of GARCH Processes, Guillaume, 1995, Olsen & Associates Research Group
Scaling Behavior in the Stable Marriage Problem,  Omero, 1997, cond-mat/9708181
Fluctuations around Nash Equilibrie in Game Theory, Marsili, 1998, cond-mat/9804145
Discrete Scaling in Stock Markets Before Crashes, Feigenbaum, 1995, cond-mat/9509033
Causal Cascade in the Stock Market from the infrared to the ultraviolet, Arneodo, 1997, cond-mat/9708012
Comment on Turbulent Cascades in Foreign Exchange Markets, Arneodo, 1996, cond-mat/9607120
Large Deviations and the Distribution of Price Changes, Calvet, 1997, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1165
A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns, Mandelbrot, 1997, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1164
An Introduction to Large Deviations, Lewis, 1998, Dublin Institute of Advanced Studies
Extreme Deviations and Applications, Frish, 1997, J. Phys I
Interacting Individuals Leading to Zipf's Law, Marsili, 1998, cond-mat/9801289
Scaling in the Market of Futures, Scalas, 1997, Working paper
The Distribution of Extremal Foreign Exchange Rate Returns in Extremely Large Data Sets, Dacorogna, 1995, Olsen & Associates
Moment Condition for HARCH(k) Models, Dacorogna, 1996, Olsen & Associates
Scaling Transformation and Probability Distributions for Financial Time Series, Brachet, 1997, Working paper
Scaling Laws for the Market Micro Structure of the Interdealer Broker Markets, Eliezer, 1998
A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneus expectations, agents interactions and information flow, G. Iori, 1999, Working Paper
Theories about architecture and performance of multi-agent systems, H. Gazendam, Working paper
Option Pricing for truncated Levy Processes, Boyarchenko & Levendorskii
A Computational Market Model Based on Individual Action, Steiglitz, 1996
A Model for Stock Price Fluctuations Based on Information, Shepp, 1999

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Draft for Risk

The Interplay between Economics and Hard Sciences: The Brownian Motion in Finance, Scalas, 1998, Draft for Risk
Standard Models Under Extreme Market Fluctuations, Susinno, 1998, Draft for Risk

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Energy Derivatives

Valuing Energy Options in One-Factor Models Fitted to Forward Prices, L. Clewlow, 1999, Working paper

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Self Organised Criticality

Price VAriations in a Stock Market with Many Agents,Bak, 1996, cond-mat/9609144
Crashes as Critical Points, Johansen, 1998, cond-mat/9810071
Stock Market Crasches are Outliers, Johansen, 1997, cond-mat/9712005
A Langevin Approach to Stock Market Fluctuations and Crashes, Bouchaud, 1998, cond-mat/9801279
Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic multiAgent Model of a Financial Market, Lux, 1999, Working paper
Large Financial Crashes, Sornette, 1997, cond-mat/9704127
The Paradox of the Expected Time Until the Next Eartquake, Sornette, 1997, cond-mat/9705046
How the Financial Crashes of October 1997 Could Have Been Predicted, Vandewalle, 1998, European Phys. J. B
Malti-Affine Analysis of Typical Currency Exchange Rate, 1998, European Physical Journal B
Symmetries and Fixed Point Stability of Stochastic Differential Equationd Modelling Self-Organised Criticality, Corral,1996, cond-mat/9612100
Are Financial Crashes Predictable?, Laloux, 1998, cond-mat/9804111
Stock Market Crashes Precursors and Replicas, Sornette, 1995, cond-mat/9510036
Exact Results for Spatio-Temporal Correlations in a Self-Organised Critical Model of Punctuated Equilibrium, BOettcher, 1995, cond-mat/9505003
Mass Extinction vs. Uniformitarianism in Biological Evolution, Bak, 1996, cond-mat/9602012
Modeling The Stock Market Prior to Large Crashes, Johansen, 1998, cond-mat/9811066
Discrete Scale Invariance, Johansen PhD Thesis
Probabilistic Fragmentation and Effective Power Law, Marsili, 1996, cond-mat/9606149
Is the reliable prediction of individual earthquakes a realistic scientific goal?, Main, Debates in Nature 25 February 1999
Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equations and Self-Organized Criticality, A. Diaz-Guilera, cond-mat/9312051
Growth Cycles and Market Crashes, David K. Levine, 1999, Working paper
A Crash Course in Stochastic Calculus with Applications to Mathematical Finance, P. Spreij, 1998

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Chaos

Bifurcation in Continuous Time Macroeconomic Systems, Barnett, 1998, SNDE
Martingales non Linearity and Chaos, Barnett, 1998, Working paper
Deterministic Chaos in Exchange Rates, Bask, 1996, Working paper

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Miscellaneous

Efficiency in Foreign exchange Market, Baviera et al, 1999, cond-mat/9901225
Pre-Computational Financea Survey Paper, Buff, 1997 N.Y. University
Noise Dressing of Financial Correlation Matrices, Laloux et al., 1998, cond-mat/9810255
Discrete Time Portofolio Management with Transaction Costs, Irving et al., 1998, CLRC
Insider Trading in a Continuous Time Market Model, Groud, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Optimal Index Tracking under Transaction Costs and Impulse Control, Buckley, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
An International Study of Efficiency and Risk in Money Markets, Miles, 1998, Internantional Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Financial Interpretation of Probabilistic Concepts, Carr, 1998, Working paper
Ingegneria Finanziaria: Fondamentici Matematici e Sviluppi Applicativi, Focardi, 1997, Intertek Group
Transation Costs and non Markovian Delta Edging, Albanese, 1995, Working paper
Conservation of energy in Value Theory, Ortmann, 1997, Working Paper
Market Organisation, Weisbuch, 1996, Santa Fe Institute Working paper 95-11-102
Fianancial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model, Chang, 1998, Federal Reserve Working Paper 98-10
Stochastic Dynamics in Game Theory, Marsili, 1998, cond-mat/9801309
Dynamical Optimization Theory of a Diversified Portfolio, MArsili, 1998, cond-mat/9801239
Expectations and Learning in IOWA, Bondarenko, 1998, CalTech
Generaalised Binomial Trees, Jackwerth, 1996,Working paper
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach, ait-Sahalia, 1998, Working paper
Artificial Stupidity: A Reply, Jackwerth, 1997, J. of Protfolio Management 24 (1) p.120-121
Price Discovery in Financial Markets: The Case of CAPM, Bossaert, 1998, CalTech
The Dynamics of Equity Prices: In Fallible Markets, Bossaerts, 1995, CalTech
Notes on Corporate Finance, Bossaerts, 1998, CalTech
Introduction to Finance, Bossaerts, 1997, Lecture notes
Affine Models of Currecy Pricing, Backus, 1996, Working paper
On the Profit and Loss Distribution of Dynamic Hedging Strategies, Esipov, 1998, Working paper
On the Ruin Problem for Some Adapted Premium Rules, Asmussen, 1999, MaPhySto
Arbitrage Relaxation of Instruments with Temporal Constraints, adamchuk, 1998, Working paper
Crowd Effects and Volatility in a Competitive Market, Johnson, 1998, con-mat/9811227
A General Framework of Hedging and Speculationg With Options, Korn, 1997, Working paper
Girsanov Theorem for Anticipative Shifts on Poisson Space, Privault, 1998, Working paper
A Different Quantum Stochastic Calculus for the Poisson Process, Privault, 1998, Working paper
The Dynamics of Money, Bak, 1998, cond-mat/9811094
Internationally Diversified Investment Using an Integrated Portfolio Model, Konno, 1998, Int. J. of Theor. and Ap. Fin.
When the Bubble is Going to Burst, Chen, 1998, Working paper
General Financial Equilibrium Modeling with Policy Interventions and Transaction Costs, Nagurney, 1996, Computational Economics
A Prototype of Model Stock Exchange, Caldarelli, 1997, cond-mat/9709118
Decomposing the Branching Brownian Motion, Jansons, 1992, Ann. Appl. Prob.
Game Theory Complexity and Simplicity, Shubik, 1997, Tutorial part I
Game Theory Complexity and Simplicity, Shubik, 1997, Tutorial part II
Game Theory Complexity and Simplicity, Shubik, 1997, Tutorial part III
Modeling Market Mechanism with Evolutionary Games, Zhang, 1998, cond-mat/9803308
Going BAck to the Basics - rethinking Market Efficiency, Olsen, 1992, Olsen and Associates
Optimal Derivative Investment in Continuous time, Carr, 1998, Working paper
Stochastic Calculus and Finance, Shreve, 1997, Lecture Notes (365pp)
Quantitative Strategies, Goldman Sachs Research Notes (1999)
Model Choice, K.Leong, December 1997, Risk
Physicists in Finance, J. Pimbley, January 1997, Physics Today
The Scientific Evolution of Finance, D. Chance and P. Peterson, 1997, Draft
Noisy information and Investment decision, L. Gauthier, 1997, Workiing paper
Efficiency in foreign exchange markets, R. Baviera, 1999, Working paper
Residual Risk and Hedging Strategies in Markovian Markets, N. Bouleau and D. Lamberton, 1997, CERMA-ENPC
A thermal model for adaptive Competition in Markets, 1999, Andrea Cavagna, cond- mat/ 9903415
Growth Under Perfect Competition, 1999, D. Levine
Derivatives And Debt in Dynamic Corporate Finance, Adam, 1999
The Folk Theorem for Repeted Games: a Synthesis, Benoit & Krishna,  1998
A Heisenberg Bound for Stationary Time Series, Blankmeyer, 1996, Southwest Texas State University
Mathematical Issues in Dynamic Programming, Bertsekas & Shreve
The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decision, Brennan, 1999
Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models, Pastor, 1999
Simulating the Madness of Crowds: Price Bubbles in an Auction-Mediated Robot Market, Steiglitz & Shapiro
Expected Returns, Realised Returns and Asset Pricing Tests, Elton, 1999

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Documents about History

The Case of the 10 Missing Pounds, John Price, 1897, Derivatives Strategy
A Chronology of Derivatives, M.Chance
How I Helped to Make Fisher Black Wealthier, J. Ritter, 1996, Financial Management
How We Came Up With the Option Formula, F. Black, 1989, Journal of Portfolio Management
How to use the Holes In Black-Scholes, F. Black, 1989, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance
Risk Instruments in The Medieval and Early Modern Economy, M. Kohn, 1999, Working Paper
FINANCE BEFORE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: AN INTRODUCTION, Kohn, 1999
MEDIEVAL AND EARLY MODERN COINAGE AND ITS PROBLEMS Kohn, 1999
EARLY DEPOSIT BANKING, Kohn, 1999
BILLS OF EXCHANGE AND THE MONEY MARKET TO 1600, Kohn, 1999
THE CAPITAL MARKET BEFORE 1600, Kohn, 1999
MERCHANT BANKING IN THE MEDIEVAL AND EARLY MODERN ECONOMY, Kohn, 1999
RISK INSTRUMENTS IN THE MEDIEVAL AND EARLY MODERN ECONOMY, Khon, 1999
The Dynamics of Discrete Bid and Ask Quotes, Hasbrouck, 1998
Estimating Portfolio and Consumption Choice: A Conditional Euler Equations Approach, Brandt, 1999
 

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A.O.B.

Theorie de L'integration, J. Jacod, Lecture Notes
New Trends in Pseudo-Random Number Generators, 1998, F. Gutbrod, Internal Letter DESY
Mersenne Twister: A 623-dimensionally equidistributed uniform pseudorandom number generator, M. Matsumoto, Keio University
Random Numbers, Book
Very Fast and Correctly Sized Estimation of the BDS Statistic, L. Kanzler, 1999, Workin paper
Applications of Optimization to Mathematical Finance, Sounders, PhD Thesis
An Introductrion to Monte Carlo Methods, Mackay, Erice
Introduction to Gaussian Processes, Mackay
Efficient Implementation of Gaussian Processes, Mackay
Choice of basis for Laplace Approximation, Mackay
Variational Gaussian Processes Classifiers, Mackay

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Various Papers Collected by Authors




P. Embrechts
B. Lapeyre
S. Pliska
 

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last update 20th May 1999
G. SUSINNO